The pandemic has been around for about 6 months now. The world has been under lockdown for a good 3 months. Each and every individual have one question itching their mind. When will the pandemic end?
According to historians, pandemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates drop, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease dims.
The medical ending is far away judging by the current context of scientific advancement. Scientists say that the development of vaccines will likely take at least 12 to 18 months. Though there have been recent advances in the development of medicine, the virus is still there to stay.
When will pandemic end?
So when people ask “When will the pandemic end?”, they are asking about the social ending. Historians say the pandemic could end socially before it ends medically. That’s partially true. People are growing tired of the restrictions that even though the virus continues to smolder, people have started to come out of their houses.
People are learning to live with the disease. An end can occur not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of the panic mode and learn to live with a disease. Physical distancing is a new trend and people are learning to live with it.
Yale historian Naomi Rogers says “We may be in a moment when people are just saying, ‘That’s enough. I deserve to be able to return to my regular life.'”
While the social part of the pandemic seems to be nearing its end, the medical part may last until 2022. It’s a completely new disease so there is not enough information known to predict its future course. A group of researchers at the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) suggest that the COVID-19 outbreak won’t end until 60% to 70% of the human population is immune to the virus.
Many countries have already lifted the imposed lockdown. They’ve started to operate the economy by following health measures. Businesses are reopening and many children are back in school. Shops are opened with extra hygiene and physical distancing. In France, bars and restaurants are opened and gatherings of fewer than 10 people are permitted.
In the Netherlands, hairdressers, nail bars, beauticians, masseuses, and occupational therapists went back to work from 11 May.